Austin Ekeler nabbed 8 through the air last season, which makes his 12 on the ground even more special. In this preview, we will be taking a look at some value plays for rushing touchdowns for the upcoming season.
We will be taking into account some important factors when handicapping these totals. Strength of schedule will be one of these factors. Players may face easier teams on their schedule in terms of defensive matchups. Injury history will be another factor.
With the 2022 NFL season right around the corner, we'll continue to look for value in the props market. Here are 3 RB touchdown props that we think have some value.
Best Offers for the 2022 NFL Season
Aaron Jones OVER 5.5 Touchdowns
Best Available Odds: -112 at FanDuel
Aaron Jones scored only 4 touchdowns last season and saw his number of carries drop from 201 in just 14 games to just 171 in 15 games. However, he is just 2 years removed from a 16-touchdown season. We believe we found a link between that 15 TD season in 2019 and this upcoming season.
In 2019, Davante Adams played in only 12 games and picked up just 5 touchdowns. Well, this year will be the 1st without Adams and we believe that Aaron Jones will see his carries inside the red zone increase and thus, give him a boost in the touchdown department. AJ Dillon will still get his reps as well but Jones will still be the primary and getting to 6 scores on the ground will be more than possible.
James Conner UNDER 9.5 Touchdowns
Best Available Odds: -120 at DraftKings
James Conner saw a resurgence last season in Arizona. His 15 touchdowns on the ground were tied for 2nd with Damien Harris and only behind Jonathan Taylor’s 18. He combined for just 10 touchdowns in the previous 2 seasons in Pittsburgh, but that was a much different situation.
He only had 6 touchdowns in his last 7 games, compared to the 9 he put up in his 1st 8. The Cardinals face one of the toughest schedules in 2022 and if they are forced to play from behind, the ground attack will be limited, causing Conner’s chances to decrease. The signing of former Chief Darrell Williams will also cause carries to drop for Conner.
Miles Sanders OVER 4.5 Touchdowns
Best Available Odds: -112 at FanDuel
Outside of Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders stands to benefit the most from the acquisition of AJ Brown. The threat of him and Smith on the outside along with Goedert over the middle will not allow defenses to load the box much against the Eagles this season.
Hurts does pick up a ton of rushing touchdowns but with teams forced to make adjustments to him after a 10-touchdown season last year, Sanders should get more opportunities in the RPO game (Run+Pass Option). If the Eagles are going to be successful this season, it will need to depend on the run games more, as they did during the tail end of last season. Sanders gets to 5 or more rushing touchdowns before week 14 this season.
