After hitting two of our three NBA prop plays on Thursday, we’re back with another round of player props for a ten-game schedule of Friday night hoops.
The early contests include several lopsided matchups with double-digit favorites like the Celtics, Raptors, and Grizzlies hosting teams projected to be in the lottery. The action picks up later in the evening, led by the featured games in California.
First, Golden State welcomes the Philadelphia 76ers to town, with the Warriors favored by five. Then, Sacramento will look to light the beam at home against the Phoenix Suns. The Kings are 4.5-point favorites in their bid to level the season series at two games apiece.
Tonight’s best prop bets are presented next, don’t miss out on a packed Friday in the NBA.
Corey Kispert OVER 13.5 Points
Washington has lost four straight and eight of ten with their season on the line and looks destined for another year selecting in the lottery picks at the ‘23 Draft.
Despite that, Kispert’s been taking advantage of his opportunities for a struggling team. Three of his nine highest Usage Rate games have occurred in the last two weeks, and he’s shot the ball well as his chances have increased.
Kispert is taking his most shots per game in any month this season and has connected on 56% of his field goal attempts and 42% of his three-pointers. He’s taken 10+ shots in four of his last six games, and we project Kispert will surpass 14 points against San Antonio on Friday.
Walker Kessler OVER 10.5 Rebounds
Kessler is another young player seeing added minutes as his team drops in the standings. The Jazz have elevated the rookie center to the point where he’s averaging more than 29 minutes per game since February and has maintained an average of 11 rebounds during this 20-game stretch.
Kessler has eight games of 11+ rebounds in his last 15 appearances and two more where he finished with exactly ten. In addition, he’s got recent performances of 15 rebounds against the Knicks, 14 rebounds against the Grizzlies, and another 14 boards against the Celtics.
Those data points give us the confidence to take his rebounding over tonight against a team like Milwaukee.
Domantas Sabonis OVER 41.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts
As the Kings have continued to outscore teams later into the regular season, Sabonis has also raised his game to another tier. He’s been maintaining historic levels of all-around performance since the All-Star Break, and we’ve got some data to prove he’s in elite company.
Sabonis is one of three players in the last ten seasons to have a 15-game stretch where he’s averaged 20 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists per game. The other two players joining him are reigning two-time MVP Nikola Jokic (who’s on track for a third) and 2016-17 MVP Russell Westbrook. For Sabonis, that stretch began on February 14 and has continued through mid-March.
The Gonzaga Bulldog is averaging 20.5 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 8.9 assists per game in 11 games this month, and we expect he’ll bring his best tonight against the Suns. Take Sabonis’ over on Pts+Rebs+Asts at 41.5.
