With their backs against the wall on Wednesday, the Knicks and Warriors put on impressive shooting displays to extend their playoff runs for at least one more game. Both teams jumped out to substantial leads at home and covered the spread in Game 5, and their reward is a road trip and another must-win game.
Miami plays host for Game 6 between the Heat and Knicks tonight, with the home team favored by 5.5 points. The Heat struggled on the road in a game that felt like they were somewhat resting while still having Jimmy Butler play 42+ minutes and Bam Adebayo log 39. New York attempted a staggering 40 free throws, out-rebounded the Heat 50-to-34, and outscored Miami 29-to-5 in points off turnovers during a 112-103 win on Wednesday.
The Warriors travel back to LA after holding serve in San Francisco while shooting 51% from the floor and winning the rebounding battle. Steph Curry led Golden State in scoring with 27 points, Andrew Wiggins added 25 points, seven rebounds, and five assists, and Draymond Green posted a double-double in the victorious effort. The Lakers are favored by 2.5 points at home for Game 6.
Our best bets for Wednesday’s Game 5s finished 1-2, thanks to a quiet scoring night from Butler and Wiggins hauling in more rebounds than we expected. While the Heat and Lakers look to close out their second-round matchups tonight, we aim to bounce back at the betting window.
Julius Randle UNDER 8.5 Rebounds
After posting double-digit rebounding efforts in every game of his first playoff action against Atlanta in 2021, Randle has only done so in three of the nine contests this year.
He’s averaged ten rebounds in the four games he’s appeared in during this conference semifinal series, but that’s primarily supported by the 26 boards he grabbed in Games 2-3.
Randle’s rebounding efforts this postseason have ranged from two in Game 4 against Cleveland to 14 in Game 3 against the Heat. Given the wide disparity, we’ll play his under for Game 6, knowing that the Heat will do everything they can to close out New York tonight.
Max Strus OVER 12.5 Points
Strus has picked up the slack in Miami’s offensive output during this second-round series with New York and has become an integral piece of their quest for another conference finals berth.
After averaging 4.8 shots per game in the Heat’s series win over Milwaukee, the sharpshooter has bumped that to 11.2 field goal attempts per game against New York.
Even more importantly, he’s connecting on an efficient number of those shots. Strus is averaging 14.8 points per game, hitting 50% from the floor and 38% from three. He’s scored 14 or more points in four straight games, and we like that streak to continue in Game 6.
LeBron James Over 41.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts
James’ rebounding numbers have regressed to normal levels in this series against Golden State after he averaged 10.1 per game and posted four games of double-digit boards against Memphis in round one.
Friday will mark the 12th time in James’ career that he’s playing in a Game 6 on his home floor. In the 11 previous instances, James averaged 42.8 minutes, 30.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 7.6 assists per game, shooting 47.7% from the floor and 34.5% from three.
We don’t want to complicate this pick. It’s James in a home elimination game against one of the biggest rivals of his career. We’ll back the King tonight.
