After what felt like an early July sports drought, baseball returned this weekend to quench the betting population’s thirst as we searched for winners.
Several big series between the Rays and Rangers, Dodgers and Orioles, and Giants and Reds are on the board to begin the week as these playoff hopefuls look to set the tone for the final 70 games.
Our first effort following the All-Star break resulted in a 2-2 record that was a ninth-inning Mookie Betts single away from a winning night. The first full week of 2023’s second half begins Monday, and we’re back with another edition of best bets in the player prop market for tonight’s 10-pack of games.
Spencer Steer UNDER 1.5 Total Bases
The Reds have cooled off during the two series on either side of the break, and Steer has experienced a steep drop-off from month to month in performance.
The team leader in home runs has posted a .558 OPS in July with one extra-base hit in 49 plate appearances after back-to-back months with an OPS above .900 and 11 combined long balls. Cincinnati just dropped five of six to Milwaukee, and Steer managed just one base hit in 22 plate appearances during the team’s skid.
Logan Webb is on the bump for San Francisco Monday. In his last two outings, he’s posted 21 strikeouts and allowed two runs across 15.2 innings, including a shutout of the Rockies on July 9.
Dane Dunning OVER 4.5 Strikeouts
Dunning has been an important part of the Rangers’ pitching arsenal since becoming a full-time member of the starting rotation in May. The 28-year-old righty had a 6-2 record with a 3.14 ERA in 12 starts between May 5 and July 9, while the offense scored the third-most runs in the bigs in support.
He's scattered 48 strikeouts over those 71.2 innings, only punching out more than four hitters once in his last seven appearances. The outlier in this recent stretch came against Detroit when he went 8.2 innings on June 28, but he’s also had success against some of the Rays’ best.
Dunning last faced Tampa in 2021 and struck out at least five hitters in both games without allowing a run in nine total innings.
Nico Hoerner OVER 1.5 Total Bases
July has been a brutal month for the Cubs infielder, one that’s seen his OPS fall 40+ points while he’s slashed .154/.228/.212 at the plate. Hoerner has struck out nearly 25% of the time and has only generated two extra-base hits in 57 plate appearances when he has managed to make contact.
One positive sign of his potential to turn this trend around after the All-Star break is that Hoerner notched at least one hit in all three games of a homestand against the Red Sox this weekend.
The Cubs host two last-place teams this week, with the Nationals (37-56) and Cardinals (40-53) coming to Wrigley, and Hoerner’s OPS is over 110 points higher at home this season than on the road. He reached base safely once and scored a run against Mackenzie Gore in a game on May 1, and we think Hoerner can do the same on Monday night.
