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3 MLB Best Bets for Friday, August 11

Mike Noblin
Written by Mike Noblin
August 11, 2023
3 MLB Best Bets for Friday, August 11

We lost our only best bet yesterday on the Blue Jays, but we're still 111-86 with our MLB selections. It's been one of those weeks where we've kind of spun our wheels a little bit. However, there's no reason to panic, as that happens frequently in the dog days of August.

Here are 3 best bets for Friday, August 11. Good luck with your action. Let's get the weekend started off right!

Best Bet: Rays F5 -0.5 (-133)

I jumped on this First 5 innings run line over at WynnBet. Aaron Civale should be fired up to stick it to his former team that traded him away a few weeks ago. The veteran righty doesn't strike out a lot of guys, but his hard-hit rate is one of the lowest in baseball at 36.5%.

The Guardians are starting an opener in Xzavion Curry, who also isn't an overpowering pitcher. He's done most of his work out of the bullpen and has an expected batting average against of .280. This Rays lineup has 6 guys with an XSLG of .450 or greater, so I'm thinking they can rough up Curry a bit early on.

Tampa Bay has struggled since the All-Star break, but they've won 6 of 10 and look to be turning things around. Give me the better offense with a starting pitcher who has a chip on his shoulder.

Best Bet: Braves -1.5 (-110)

It's hard to believe that the Braves just split a 4-game series with the Pirates. Their still scoring runs in bunches but the pitching has looked rough over the last few days. That being said, I think this is a good "Get-Right" spot for Atlanta.

Going back to last year, the Braves have won 9 of their last 10 games against the Mets. Charlie Morton has struggled during his last couple of starts, but his curveball is still one of the best in the league. Though Morton is getting on up there in age, he's more reliable than Mets starter Tylor Megill, who sports an expected batting average against of .291!

As you might imagine, Atlanta has a huge offensive edge in this game. The Bravos have 5 hitters with expected batting averages of at least .260. Guess how many the Mets have? ZERO! Let's lay the run line with the best team in baseball.

Best Bet: Rangers (-104)

This is a pretty nice price on a very good Texas team. I know San Fran is pretty solid at home, but they're just not playing good ball lately. The G-Men just lost 2 of 3 to the Angels after being swept by the A's (of all teams) over the weekend.

Texas is firing on all cylinders, as they won 8 of 10 and the bullpen is pitching much better. I'm not too crazy about Jon Gray, but he's a veteran that knows how to pitch and get hitters out. I'll take Gray and his pretty impressive 37.5% hard-hit rate over Giants starter Scott Alexander, who didn't even record an out during his last start 3 days ago.

The Rangers are clearly the better hitting team in this matchup, and they hit lefties incredibly well. Texas is averaging 6 runs per 9 innings off of southpaws over their last 5 outings. San Fran is only averaging 4.1 vs righties in that same span. As Davy Crockett once said, "I shall go to Texas".

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