2024 Presidential Election Odds

With the 2022 midterm cycle concluded and new faces already seated in the halls of Congress, the next election on the horizon looms large in November 2024. President Joe Biden has consistently discussed his desire to run again in 2024 but has not yet officially declared his intention to do so.

Just two candidates have made that declaration with less than a year until the primary balloting begins, according to The Hill, former President Donald Trump and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.

Both of those names appear on the current odds list among others who are seen as likely to join the race on both sides of the aisle. Without getting into political platforms or agendas, we’ll look at which names are among those expected to be on the ballots when primaries and caucuses begin in January 2024.

Recapping the 2020 Election

Former Vice President Biden defeated then-sitting President Trump in 2020 by approximately 7 million votes in the popular vote and won the Electoral College balloting by a tally of 306 to 232. Biden’s victories in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Virginia, Arizona, and Wisconsin swung the election in his favor. The 81.2 million votes cast for Biden set a new record for US Presidential Elections.

The 2020 presidential election, when viewed in a vacuum, stirred a significant increase in turnout at the polls. According to the US Census Bureau, this election marked the “largest increase in voters between two presidential elections on record, with 17 million more people voting than in 2016.”

66.8% of voting-age Americans cast a ballot in the 2020 election, an increase of 5.4% from 2016 and a rate that dwarfs all other elections dating back to 2000. 72.7% of citizens 18 years and older were registered to vote for this election, also the highest mark in recent election history by a slight margin over the 2004 election when George W. Bush defeated John Kerry to win a second term.

Notably, turnout rates were higher across all race groups in 2020 compared to 2016, with the largest changes occurring in the non-Hispanic Asian (up to 59% from 49%) and Hispanic populations (increased to 54% from 48%). 65% of eligible men voted compared to 68% of voting-age women. Both of those numbers are higher than they were in 2016 as well.

Also worth noting, 57% of Americans between the ages of 18 and 34 voted in 2020. This was a large boost from the 49% voting rate for this age group in the 2016 election. This trend continued during the 2022 midterm cycle.

The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) at Tufts University estimated that the 2022 midterms saw the second-highest voter turnout among the 18-29 age demographic dating back to 1994. This number trailed the 2018 midterm cycle, and both recent data points indicate a groundswell among the younger voters in the US that hasn’t been seen in quite some time.

2024 Betting Favorites

According to Oddshark, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is the current favorite to win the presidency in 2024. DeSantis was reelected in Florida during the 2022 midterm cycle and has not officially declared his candidacy, although he declined to answer such questions during his campaign.

He is viewed as the primary competitor to Trump within the Republican Party, and a recent Newsweek piece highlights the political threat that DeSantis represents to the former president. This is something to watch for in the build-up to the Republican primaries less than 12 months from now as the attention slowly begins to turn toward another high-profile election.

President Biden is listed as the second-favorite, with former President Trump also among this group at the top of the odds sheet. Biden, as part of public statements acknowledging his reelection bid, has said that current Vice President Kamala Harris will remain his running mate.

Harris herself, the first female, African-American, and Asian-American to hold the office of Vice President, has been rumored to be a challenger for the Presidency, but that may have changed with Biden’s statements over the last year. Her name is listed among those with odds as of January 2023.

2024 Long Shots

Other names being discussed include California Governor Gavin Newsome, former Vice President Mike Pence, and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg. Beyond that group, former First Lady Michelle Obama’s name pops up, as does current Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin.

It will be interesting to see if any notable Democratic Party challengers officially declare to oppose Biden on their side of the ballot. Another recent piece from The Hill noted that both parties are dealing with a lot of uncertainty about which candidate should represent them in 2024, with Democrats polling at 37% in that data compared to 34% on the GOP side.

Harris declaring her intent to run would break from her current running mate’s public statements. Newsome has had a tumultuous tenure in California, including enduring a recall vote that he ultimately won to retain his position. Buttigieg is a long shot if he runs at all, but some polling has indicated he could also compete with Biden in a primary setting.

Other previous candidates on the Democratic side include senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Both have said they’ll seek reelection to their Senate seats in 2024 instead of initiating another bid for the White House.

On the Republican side, Haley will attempt to benefit from an early campaign declaration against the favorites within the party. Senators Tim Scott (SC) and Ted Cruz (TX), as well as governors Greg Abbott (TX), Chris Sununu (NH), Kristi Noem (SD), and Larry Hogan (MD), have been mentioned as possible challengers within the GOP primary race as well.

Former Vice President Mike Pence recently stirred speculation about his desire to join the fray and compete against his former running mate. His reaction to Haley’s declaration included the quote, “She may have more company soon in the race for president.” We’ll see if Pence acts on that in the coming weeks.

Too Early to Call for Best Bets

At this point, the race is too unclear for us to place a wager, given that only two candidates are confirmed to be on the ballots in January. The lack of clarity on the Democratic side of the ticket is clouding this picture too. Continue to monitor this space as we cover this developing election cycle from a sports bettor’s point of view.

April 17, 2023 Update

President Joe Biden has re-taken the lead as the candidate with the best odds (+175) to win the 2024 Presidential Election. According to a recent poll by Rasmussen Reports, his approval rating has risen slightly to 48%, though his net approval rating is still -3%. Biden’s path to the current odds lead has been quiet compared to the other candidates, but that may not be the worst strategy based on recent events.

Former President Donald Trump (+250) has surpassed fellow GOP candidate Ron DeSantis on the heels of a grand jury indictment in New York in early April. According to a copy of the indictment shared by CBS News, Trump was charged with 34 counts of falsifying business reports in the first degree and pled not guilty during his arraignment hearing. This development has boosted his odds of winning back the presidency, and recent polling shared by FiveThirtyEight has put him in a dead heat with Biden.

DeSantis (+350) has been getting drubbed by Trump in recent polls from Emerson College and YouGov, losing by nearly 20 points in a significant turn of events since the first edition of this piece in mid-February. The Florida governor has still not made a formal declaration that he’ll run for president, and if he does, it will be a Republican showdown that hasn’t been seen for quite some time.

Winners of Past US Presidential Elections

Want a brief United States history lesson? Here are the winners of each presidential election from 1952 to 2020.

US Presidential Elections FAQ

The 2024 US Presidential Election will be here before we know it. Here are some frequently asked questions and answers about presidential elections in the United States. We'll update these as the 2024 election draws closer.

Who is the only US president to be elected for a third term?

The only US president to be elected for a third term was Franklin D. Roosevelt. He was elected to a third term in 1940 and then to a fourth term in 1944, but he died in office in 1945, less than a year into his fourth term. After his death, the 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution was passed, limiting presidents to two terms.

What government party has won the most US presidential elections?

The government party that has won the most US presidential elections is the Republican Party. Since the first Republican president was elected in 1860, there have been 19 Republican presidents. The Democratic Party has had 15 presidents. However, it's worth noting that the political landscape has shifted over time, and the platforms and ideologies of the two major parties have evolved. Additionally, the popular vote does not always align with the outcome of the Electoral College, which determines the winner of the presidential election.

How many votes does a presidential candidate need to win?

In the United States, a presidential candidate needs to win a majority of the Electoral College votes to become the President. The Electoral College is made up of 538 electors, and a candidate must win at least 270 electoral votes to become the President. The number of electors from each state is determined by the state's population and is equal to the number of representatives in the House of Representatives plus the number of Senators.

Can Americans bet on the outcomes of presidential elections?

The laws regarding betting on presidential elections vary by state in the United States. In some states, betting on political elections is legal and regulated, while in others, it is illegal. However, even in states where it is legal, betting on the outcomes of presidential elections is not common or widely available. It's worth noting that there are many ways to engage in the election process beyond betting, such as volunteering for campaigns, donating to candidates, and, of course, voting.

When was the first presidential election held in the United States?

The first presidential election in the United States was held in 1789. George Washington was elected as the first President of the United States, and John Adams was elected as the first Vice President. At the time, the United States was a new and developing country, and the election was seen as a crucial step in establishing the new government. The election was held using a system in which each state appointed a number of electors, who then cast their votes for the President and Vice President.