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2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: 9 Bets We're Making

Bill Christy
Written by Bill Christy
June 27, 2023
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic 9 Bets We're Making

The PGA Tour is in Detroit this week for the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic. Some of the best players in the world will compete for a prize purse of nearly $9 million. Tony Finau and Rickie Fowler are currently the co-favorites to win at +1400 odds.

Cam Davis OVER Stephan Jaeger (-115)

We are getting Cam Davis following his best start in 4 of his previous events. He finished 11 under par last week at the Travelers and finished in a tie for 33rd. His strength off the tee is what has carried him this season.

He ranks 9th on Tour in strokes gained off the tee. He faces Stephan Jaeger in this matchup who stumbled on Sunday at the Travelers shooting 4 over. He finished just 64th in the event and has continued to struggle on the green. He is 121st in strokes gained with his putting.

We believe Davis will back up his solid play at the Travelers with another strong showing. He may not win the event like he did in 2021 but a Top 15 finish like last year could be in his future.

Chris Kirk OVER Ludvig Aberg (+100)

Ludvig has yet to participate here at the Rocket Mortgage Classic while Kirk has picked up 3 straight Top 25 finishes here. Adberg has been solid this season with his limited time on Tour.

He has 3 Top 25 finishes in just 4 starts. He has yet to have enough rounds in order to gain stats compared to the rest of the Tour.

Kirk, however, is 27th on Tour in total strokes gained. Being 21st in driving accuracy has helped Kirk to gain strokes week in and out and the same should be for this weekend.

J.J. Spaun OVER Tom Hoge (-150)

Spaun missed the cut last week at the Travelers after picking up a solid 30th place finish at the Memorial. He does have a solid track record here at the RMC. He grabbed a Top 10 last year after back-to-back 30th place finishes.

His opponent, Hoge, has missed the cut at back-to-back starts here at the RMC. Over his last 5 events, Hoge has shot 23 over par on his Sunday rounds. Spaun is sitting the Top 15 in both Par 3 scoring average and Scrambling.

We like him to play well enough to get through the weekend and Hoge is likely to fall apart again on Sunday, if he is able to make it that far.

Matt Wallace OVER Danny Willett (-105)

Wallace has participated in only 2 Rocket Mortgage Classics. However, he has had success in both with finishes of 12th and 10th in 2020 and 2022. His putting needs some work but his ability to get it tight on his approaches this season have benefited him thus far.

Danny Willett ranks outside the Top 120 in both strokes gained off the tee and on approaches. It is no wonder that he has missed 4 of his last 5 cuts.

And while he finished 4th here in 2020, the last 2 years have been tough for Willett who has secured finishes of 67th both times. Wallace’s strong track record at the RMC should provide us an easy win here.

Top 40 Finish: Henrik Norlander

Norlander has gone back-to-back tournaments finishing outside the Top 40 after placing 34th at the AT&T Byron Nelson. While he is ranked outside the Top 100 of the FedEx Cup standings, we believe Norlander could sneak into the Top 40 here.

He has 3 starts here at the RMC and all 3 have been finishes inside the Top 40. His best finish was 12th back in 2020 and last year he snagged a 30th place.

Top 40 Finish: Lanto Griffin

It has been a tough season so far for Lanto Griffin. He has only made 5 of his 10 cuts this season. Only in 2 of those 5 made cuts did he finish inside the Top 40.

While he has not had a ton of experience on Tour, he has participated at the RMC in 2020 and 2021. In those events, he finished 21st and 25th respectively. We are going to ride that success and snagging Griffin at almost 2.5 to 1, it makes it well worth the risk here.

Top 40 Finish: Troy Merritt

After missing the cut here in 2019, Merritt has since been a on a tear at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Last year he finished 14th and was runner-up the year previous.

Toss in an 8th place finish in 2020 and you begin to see that Merritt is in love with this event. We are banking on him continuing his success here and sliding into a Top 40 finish with ease.

Top 40 Finish: Scott Stallings

Scott Stallings has continually finish in a stronger position year after year here at the RMC. After a 64th place finish in 2019, he followed that up with a 39th in 2020, 25th in 2021, and most recently he grabbed a 10th place finish last year.

We are not anticipating him contending like last year, but with his ability to play strong here each year, the Top 40 should be a definite possibility.

Top 20 Finish: Tom Kim

Tom Kim has had limited time on Tour but has certainly made a splash. In fact, last year at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, he finished 7th and was in contention all weekend.

This season has been a bit more of a grind but did finish tied for 8th at the US Open and had a strong finish last weekend at the Travelers with a 5 under par Sunday round.

He is 26th on Tour in total strokes gained with his approaches being his strongest suit where he sits in 8th. Kim may provide more value for a Top 10 or Top 5 finish, but we believe the plus money here is enough value for us.

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