When the roulette table has landed on red nine times in a row, how would you bet the next spin of the wheel? In baseball, the American League is on a nine-year winning streak against their National League competitors in the MLB All-Star Game.
This midseason exhibition was once used to determine whose league representative in the World Series would gain the benefit of home-field advantage, but now it is more of a bragging rights exercise that attempts to draw big numbers in ratings while baseball has the spotlight.
Over the last 25 years of the Midsummer Classic, the AL has a 21-3-1 record against the NL. In the more recent sample of the previous nine years, the American League has outscored the NL 40-22 while stifling the National League bats.
The average run total has finished at 6.88, with the NL averaging fewer than 2.5 runs per game since 2013. The AL side has scored 4+ runs in six of the nine years compared to just once for the National League (2018).
In 2023, the American League looks to extend their winning streak to ten games at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Four teams dominate the starting lineup spots, with the Rangers (5), Braves (3), Dodgers (3), and Rays (2) sending 13 of the 18 players getting the first at-bats.
Both teams are level at -110 odds on the moneyline with a run total set at 7.5 (U -120) in the 93rd meeting of the best players the two leagues have to offer.
After hitting our Home Run Derby winner play on Vladdy Jr., we look to back that up with some best bets for Tuesday’s All-Star Game.
The All-Star Game had been in a first inning scoring drought for four years until the 2022 edition, where Mookie Betts and Paul Goldschmidt drove in runs off Shane McClanahan to give the NL the lead.
With this year’s National League order likely being led by Luis Arraez and his .383 batting average, followed by a slew of Braves and Dodgers, we wouldn’t be surprised to see them jump out to an early lead as the road team tonight.
The game has seen 13 combined hits in two of the last three years with base knocks at a premium. Since 2017, three of the five All-Star Games have seen 17+ hits, including 20 in 2018 when the AL won 8-6 in the highest-scoring matchup since 1998 at Coors Field.
In two of the games with more than 16 hits, the game went to the 10th inning and opened the door to more at-bats and chances to get on base. We aren’t planning for extras this evening and are playing the under on base hits.
Let’s start with the American League missing two starting outfielders due to injury. Aaron Judge and Mike Trout have been replaced by Baltimore’s Austin Hays and Texas’ Adolis García.
For us, that slightly skews the first three innings in the NL’s favor before the teams get through the order and substitutions start taking place.
With the pitching talent on both teams largely canceling each other out, we’re handicapping this matchup based on any discernible edge. If the NL gets out to a lead as we expect, they have the arms to hold off a charge from the home team.