The 2022 NFL MVP odds look considerably different from where we sat just a few weeks ago. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have skyrocketed to the front of the pack while Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen look like longshots as we enter the final month of the NFL regular season.
The season's MVP race has been fun to watch as several players have had their hat in as a favorite at some point throughout the season. Everyone from Tom Brady, Matt Stafford, Johnathon Taylor, Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, and Joe Burrow have all shown the potential of being the league's Most Valuable Player so far this season.
This may be the most crowded Most Valuable Player award race in several years. As of right now, the consensus betting favorite is Tom Brady at (-165) odds. Following Brady is Rodgers at (+500), Patrick Mahomes at (+1200), Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, and Matthew Stafford at (+1400), rounding out the listed odds is Johnathon Taylor (+2500) and Josh Allen at (+2500), then the longshots are Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Mac Jones.
Before jumping into the latest updates to our picks, here is a look at the current NFL MVP odds from our friends over at PointsBet SportsBook:
Our updated pick for the best MVP bet right now is Aaron Rodgers. You can get him for favorable odds at +500 and if he finds a way to get the Packers to the top overall seed in the NFC, this ticket should cash.
We mean no disrespect to what father time has done in Tampa this season but when you consider the injuries that the Packers' offense has dealt with if Rodgers has them seeded higher than Brady's Bucs, he should take home the MVP award.
If you are looking for a longshot worth backing, Justin Herbert is available at +2500 at PointsBet Sportsbook and has a schedule that sets up favorably for him to make a push. If he plays well and the Chargers beat the Chiefs, they will be in the driver's seat in the AFC West with only Houston, Denver, and Las Vegas remaining on the schedule.
Find our original article with preseason MVP picks below:
Our Favorite Bet for 2021-22 NFL MVP: Lamar Jackson
While we were tempted to go straight chalk with Patrick Mahomes, tying up money all year long for a 5 to 1 payout does not seem like good value. The 17 to 1 number on Jackson is too juicy to pass up and we will gladly add it to our NFL betting portfolio. Ask yourself this question. How are Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Matthew Stafford all listed ahead of Jackson as favorites to win the MVP?
Putting three quarterbacks who have never won an MVP before ahead of Jackson is a sign of disrespect. Did everyone suddenly forget that Jackson won the MVP back in 2019? Here are a few other reasons why we gladly backed Jackson at this generous number:
Improved Passing Ability - The knock on the former Heisman Trophy winner coming out of college was that he lacked passing accuracy. Jackson has proved all of those critics wrong by posting an NFL career completion percentage of 64%. Also, do not forget about his 68 career touchdown passes and the fact that he has only thrown 18 picks.
Best Running QB - If we look at the five quarterbacks rated ahead of Jackson in terms of MVP odds, he is clearly the best running QB of the bunch. Sure, Mahomes has quick feet. However, Jackson has 19 career-rushing touchdowns while Mahomes has only 6! When betting on the MVP award, I prefer quarterbacks who can score both in the air and on the ground. Jackson fits that bill perfectly.
Comfort with the Offense - 2021 will be Jackson’s fourth NFL season and he should be even more comfortable in the Ravens system. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has vowed to build the offense around Jackson’s strengths so that should allow for Jackson to improve on his 2020 stats.
More Help at Wide Receiver The Ravens knew they needed help at wideout and they got plenty of it both before and during the draft. Free-agent signees like Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead should have Jackson pumped up for a big season in 2021. Also, drafting speedsters like Tylan Wallace and Rashod Bateman should be a plus and will give Jackson more targets downfield.
Best Longshot Bet for NFL MVP: Ben Roethlisberger (+9000)
Whispers going around Pittsburgh say that 2021 may be the swan song for Big Ben. Going out with his first MVP award would be the perfect ending for Roethlisberger and the Steelers organization. The 90 to 1 payout on this bet would have us dancing in the streets.
Roethlisberger may be 39 years old, but the two-time Super Bowl champion has plenty of good throws left in his arm. In fact, Roethlisberger had a splendid 2020 season by throwing 33 touchdowns, only 10 interceptions, and a fabulous 12-3 record as a starter. Let’s also not forget that in 2018 Roethlisberger led the league in total passing yards and total completions.
We all know that Big Ben and the Steelers will be out for blood this year after being upset in the Wild Card round of the playoffs by the Cleveland Browns last year. Plus, Mike Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the league and he will have these guys more motivated than ever. 90 to 1 odds on a future Hall of Fame QB like Roethlisberger has plenty of betting value.
Bonus MVP Pick for 2021: Kyler Murray at +2300
Kyler Murray grew by leaps and bounds as an NFL QB during his second season in 2020. The former Oklahoma star even got the Arizona Cardinals back to a respectable record of 8-8. That’s extremely impressive when you consider that the Cards were 5-10-1 in 2019.
We see Murray taking another big step in 2021 for Arizona. The 5-10 207 pound QB threw 26 touchdowns last year and also found the end zone 11 times on the ground. Both of those numbers should only go up this season.
With a 17 game season in 2021, we could see Murray throwing 35 touchdowns and running for 15 more. If Murray can do that in a tough division like the NFC West, he should at least be in the MVP conversation.
Another reason to love Murray for MVP is his supporting cast. The Cardinals have quietly put together one of the best receiving corps in the league. DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk are dynamic options for Murray to throw the ball to down the field.
Don’t forget about veteran A.J. Green, who comes over from the Cincinnati Bengals. Though he’s not quite the beast he used to be, Green just turned 33 and should have a couple more productive seasons left in the tank. Also, look for rookie Rondale Moore to become one of Murray’s favorite targets in 2021.
We love investing in dual-threat quarterbacks to win the MVP award. Murray is on the same level as Lamar Jackson, who won the MVP in 2019. At the nice price of 23 to 1, let’s put a few shekels on Murray to win MVP in 2021.
Best Non-QB NFL MVP Bet:
First and foremost, it has been 8 years since the last non-QB player won an MVP (Adrian Peterson 2012). Furthermore, there has been only one non-QB MVP winner in total since 2006. Any non-QB MVP bet is beyond a long shot, which should translate to placing a small wager on long odds.
The second thing to keep in mind when placing a non-QB MVP bet is that no wide receiver has ever won the award. In fact, more outside-linebackers (Lawrence Taylor) have won the MVP than wide receivers. So narrow your MVP list to focus on running backs capable of having a record-breaking season on a team that could win their division.
After analyzing the MVP odds of every NFL running back, we could not get away from Alvin Kamara at +12000 odds. Let us start with this, if he is able to play a full 17 game season he will finish over 1,000 rushing and receiving yards in 2021. Furthermore, simply using last season's TD production, over a 17 game season he could put up 20 rushing touchdowns and 8 receiving touchdowns.
If, somehow, the Saints can push the Bucs and maybe even steal the NFC South (which they won in 2020), how is a position player that put up 2,200 - 2,400 yards and 28 touchdowns not in the MVP discussion? We have said it for three years now, Alvin Kamara is the second-best football player in the NFL (behind Aaron Donald), can that ability translate into an MVP? If it does a $20 bet will pay off $2,400!
Mike has been involved with sports for over 30 years. He played college baseball and has been betting on sports for more than 20 years. He has a degree in Sports Psychology and covers the NFL and CFB for EatWatchBet. @MikeNoblin
