With the NFL draft complete, that means one thing: We are one step closer to football season, baby! Also, do not forget that the NFL will announce their full regular-season schedule this week so keep an eye on that. In previous articles, we dug into the NFL Futures betting market to find some value to add to your betting bankroll.
Today, let’s check out the current 2021-22 NFL MVP Odds. We will dive into three bets that we think have a bit of value. Most astute football investors know that the MVP is basically a top QB award.
In fact, 14 out of the top 15 players listed for the MVP award this year are quarterbacks. Last year, Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers had a phenomenal season and took home his third MVP trophy.
Can Rodgers repeat as MVP this season? It appears unlikely at the moment considering the fact that he has asked out of Green Bay. Without further adieu, here are the current NFL MVP odds from our friends over at FanDuel:
Current NFL MVP Betting Odds
Updated Odds from FanDuel SportsBook
Our Favorite Bet for 2021-22 NFL MVP: Lamar Jackson
While we were tempted to go straight chalk with Patrick Mahomes, tying up money all year long for a 5 to 1 payout does not seem like good value. The 17 to 1 number on Jackson is too juicy to pass up and we will gladly add it to our NFL betting portfolio. Ask yourself this question. How are Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Matthew Stafford all listed ahead of Jackson as favorites to win the MVP?
Putting three quarterbacks who have never won an MVP before ahead of Jackson is a sign of disrespect. Did everyone suddenly forget that Jackson won the MVP back in 2019? Here are a few other reasons why we gladly backed Jackson at this generous number:
- Improved Passing Ability - The knock on the former Heisman Trophy winner coming out of college was that he lacked passing accuracy. Jackson has proved all of those critics wrong by posting an NFL career completion percentage of 64%. Also, do not forget about his 68 career touchdown passes and the fact that he has only thrown 18 picks.
- Best Running QB - If we look at the five quarterbacks rated ahead of Jackson in terms of MVP odds, he is clearly the best running QB of the bunch. Sure, Mahomes has quick feet. However, Jackson has 19 career-rushing touchdowns while Mahomes has only 6! When betting on the MVP award, I prefer quarterbacks who can score both in the air and on the ground. Jackson fits that bill perfectly.
- Comfort with the Offense - 2021 will be Jackson’s fourth NFL season and he should be even more comfortable in the Ravens system. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman has vowed to build the offense around Jackson’s strengths so that should allow for Jackson to improve on his 2020 stats.
- More Help at Wide Receiver The Ravens knew they needed help at wideout and they got plenty of it both before and during the draft. Free-agent signees like Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead should have Jackson pumped up for a big season in 2021. Also, drafting speedsters like Tylan Wallace and Rashod Bateman should be a plus and will give Jackson more targets downfield.
Best Longshot Bet for NFL MVP: Ben Roethlisberger (+9000)
Whispers going around Pittsburgh say that 2021 may be the swan song for Big Ben. Going out with his first MVP award would be the perfect ending for Roethlisberger and the Steelers organization. The 90 to 1 payout on this bet would have us dancing in the streets.
Roethlisberger may be 39 years old, but the two-time Super Bowl champion has plenty of good throws left in his arm. In fact, Roethlisberger had a splendid 2020 season by throwing 33 touchdowns, only 10 interceptions, and a fabulous 12-3 record as a starter. Let’s also not forget that in 2018 Roethlisberger led the league in total passing yards and total completions.
We all know that Big Ben and the Steelers will be out for blood this year after being upset in the Wild Card round of the playoffs by the Cleveland Browns last year. Plus, Mike Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the league and he will have these guys more motivated than ever. 90 to 1 odds on a future Hall of Fame QB like Roethlisberger has plenty of betting value.
Bonus Bet for NFL MVP: Russell Wilson (+2000)
Riddle us this: How in the heck has a human highlight reel like Russell Wilson never won an MVP award? It simply does not make any sense! Wilson has made four straight Pro Bowls and is still in the prime of his career.
Though we are a little concerned about the reports that surfaced claiming that Wilson is unhappy in Seattle, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll is a master at smoothing things over and hopefully, he did so with Wilson. The 2013 Super Bowl champ had another fantastic season in 2020 by tossing 40 touchdowns while running for two additional scores. Wilson still has plenty of outstanding weapons to throw at the wideout position.
Guys like Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and Freddie Swain are all proven targets. Also, the Seahawks added a fine receiver in second-round draft pick, D’wayne Eskridge, during this year’s draft. We will gladly take 20 to 1 odds on a player like Wilson that will be featured in Sportscenter’s Top 10 Plays most of the 2021 NFL season.
Best Non-QB NFL MVP Bet:
First and foremost, it has been 8 years since the last non-QB player won an MVP (Adrian Peterson 2012). Furthermore, there has been only one non-QB MVP winner in total since 2006. Any non-QB MVP bet is beyond a long shot, which should translate to placing a small wager on long odds.
The second thing to keep in mind when placing a non-QB MVP bet is that no wide receiver has ever won the award. In fact, more outside-linebackers (Lawrence Taylor) have won the MVP than wide receivers. So narrow your MVP list to focus on running backs capable of having a record-breaking season on a team that could win their division.
After analyzing the MVP odds of every NFL running back, we could not get away from Alvin Kamara at +12000 odds. Let us start with this, if he is able to play a full 17 game season he will finish over 1,000 rushing and receiving yards in 2021. Furthermore, simply using last season's TD production, over a 17 game season he could put up 20 rushing touchdowns and 8 receiving touchdowns.
If, somehow, the Saints can push the Bucs and maybe even steal the NFC South (which they won in 2020), how is a position player that put up 2,200 - 2,400 yards and 28 touchdowns not in the MVP discussion? We have said it for three years now, Alvin Kamara is the second-best football player in the NFL (behind Aaron Donald), can that ability translate into an MVP? If it does a $20 bet will pay off $2,400!